Most of this book has concentrated on the here and now, but if you have long-term aspirations you have to look ahead. In the words of John Galsworthy: ‘If you do not think about the future you cannot have one.’

This chapter looks into the future. It speculates about future job prospects in the United States, and in particular, the most promising job sectors and areas for employment. If, however, you are interested in exploring other options -returning home, or perhaps moving on to some other country - these questions are also dealt with briefly, glut of PhD graduates in engineering (electrical, civil and chemical), maths, bioscience and economics.

What Are Job Prospects Like?

During the Clinton administration the American economy went from strength to strength while others, especially in the Far East, faltered. This meant more jobs and better prospects in many regions, though some states were untouched by the newly found prosperity.

Under George W. Bush’s presidency the economy has performed less well despite tax cuts; the country has built up a massive trade deficit and the dollar has weakened. During his second term in office such weaknesses will need to be addressed. However, things can only get better and towards the end of 2004 some economic growth was observed.

For outsiders hoping to work in the USA, there have been problems, too. Although many companies and institutions are desperate to recruit qualified staff from anywhere, the attack on the World Trade Center has caused some Americans to regard any foreigner as a potential threat. As a consequence acquiring the necessary permits seems to be tougher now than it used to be.

Certain industries will require fewer staff, either because they are in decline or because of increases in productivity; the automobile and textile industries are cases in point. Others will require more staff, because they are expanding. The outstanding examples here are the health care and home care sectors.

The US needs to recruit one million more nurses between now and 2010, and it is likely that nurses recruited from abroad will be needed to make up the shortfall.

Clearly it makes sense to look for jobs where there is going to be a growth in demand. Fortunately we have some useful forecasts to go by; every two years the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor produces employment projections for each occupation. The latest projections to hand relate to the period 2002–2012.

Figure 15 shows the occupations that are expected to grow the fastest with the IT sector topping the bill. Indeed, the number of IT jobs looks set to almost double. Health care occupations are also likely to undergo a rapid expansion - partly, one suspects, in response to the growing health care needs of an ageing population.

Other sectors which will require many more staff in the future are pre-school education and special education. Prospects also look good for legal assistants (paralegals) and people working in the financial sector. There will also be more opportunities for restaurant managers and musicians.

By contrast numerous manufacturing occupations are likely to decline, especially in the textile, electronics and plastics industries, as a result of automation. Fewer bookkeepers, accounting and auditing clerks will be needed in offices, and the number of typists is likely to fall as well. Telecommunications is also going to lose jobs. However, these are not sectors where much recruitment was done from abroad anyway.

To return to the expanding occupational sectors, while many of the extra jobs mentioned will be taken up by Americans, not all of them will be. Reviewing data showing the mathematical proficiency of pupils in the twelfth grade, an American labour expert noted that ‘a very small pool of young people today appear educationally prepared for many of the occupations projected to grow most rapidly in the 1990–2005 period’.⁽¹⁾

However, predictions need to be taken with a pinch of salt as they may be based on inaccurate data. In the 1980s the National Science Foundation predicted a shortfall of trained engineers and scientists by 2005, yet at present there is a

Ronald Kutscher in his article New BLS Projections: Findings and Implications (Monthly Labor Review, November 1991).

Figure 15.1

Projected Employment Change 2002–2012 and 2002 median annual earnings.

Figure 15.1

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